CNN tries to keep Obama-McCain horserace alive but only massive voting fraud could keep Obama from winning

October 29, 2008 by  

Over at CNN.com, Manav Tanneeru writes a story highlighting how polls can lie when there’s no incumbent in the mix.

“Obama’s ahead, polls say, but will the lead last?”
(CNN) — With a week to go before Election Day, most recent national polls show Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama with an advantage. But how much are they to be believed?

The most recent national CNN poll of polls showed Obama with an 8-point lead over Republican presidential nominee John McCain, 51 percent to 43 percent. The polls were conducted October 21 through October 26.

Most other national polls show Obama with a lead ranging between 5 points and double digits.

A look at CNN polling during the same period before Election Day in 2000 and 2004 suggests that political observers and campaign supporters ought to be cautious in declaring the race over because of current polling numbers. See the latest state and national polls

When a presidential race has a non-incumbent in the lead, like this year, the poll numbers tend to tighten as Election Day gets closer, CNN senior researcher Alan Silverleib said.

“Any time it looks like they are on the verge of voting somebody new into office, there is buyer’s remorse,” he said. “Based on that, and the fact that the country has been so polarized in recent elections, there’s pretty good reason to think that the polls might tighten up a little bit.”

The entire “story” is based on the 2000 Bush-Gore election:

A CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll conducted October 29 through October 31 showed Bush, then the Texas governor, leading Democratic Sen. Al Gore, 48 percent to 43 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

A subsequent poll conducted November 2 through November 4, released two days before the voters cast their ballots, showed the same results.

Gore, however, ended up winning the popular vote by about 540,000 votes. When broken down by percentage, both candidates had about 48 percent of the popular vote. Bush won the Electoral College, and thereby the presidency, by 5 electoral votes.

Tanneeru also brings up the Clinton-Bush election, which didn’t really fit into the narrative, so then went back 40 years to the Nixon-Humphrey race, and then went back 52 years to the Truman-Dewey race to try and build a compelling story.

So really, all Tanneru has (And mind you, the Florida recount controversy is never mentioned) is that the polling fell apart in the Bush-Gore race. But did it?

Tanneeru seems to believe that the national vote elects the President rather than the electoral college. Possibly because that would destroy the entire thing. In 2000, as of Oct. 1, the national polls had the election almost dead even. However, even then, Bush held a solid advantage in 26 states, accounting for 224 electoral votes, while Gore held a solid advantage in 12 states accounting for 181 electoral votes. Twelve more states were in the “tossup” category, which accounted for 133 electoral votes.

Of those toss-up states, four went to Bush for a total of 47 electoral votes, while eight went to Gore for a total of 86 electoral votes.

Doing the math, it turned out like this: Bush 271, Gore 267. Whatever the national vote was, the polling numbers in regard to states came out exactly correct once the toss-up states were decided.

Now do the numbers for the Obama-McCain race. Using CNN again, Obama has a total of 277 electoral votes to McCain’s 174 with 87 still up in the air as toss ups.

So, even if McCain won every “toss-up” state, he would still come up short. And Obama is currently leading in every one of those toss-up states.

Basically, the 2008 election is absolutely nothing like the 2000 election, and any comparison of the two are just plain foolish. According to the current polls, McCain would have to come back in at least seven states in six days in order to win the Presidency.

Basically, with six days to go, this race isn’t even close. The only way Barack Obama won’t be the next President is if McCain and the RNC are able to commit voter fraud on an historic level.

Update: In regard to the 2004 election, the polling was extremely accurate. A good source to analize the 2004 pre-election polling in relation to the ultimate outcome can be found here: The Accuracy of the National Preelection Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election.

–WKW

Comments

10 Responses to “CNN tries to keep Obama-McCain horserace alive but only massive voting fraud could keep Obama from winning”

  1. Ron Honn on October 29th, 2008 1:47 pm

    And with all of the above, I still intend to vote early in Oklahoma, then drive to Missouri on election day and drive Obama voters to the polls. In 2000, I voted for Gore, but did nothing else. It never dawned on me that the Autocrat Party (used to be called Republican Party back in Eisenhower’s day) could BOTH rig that election, then turn it over to the Republican Legal Dept. (used to be called the Supreme Court in happier times) to install W as ruler and Decider.

    I’ve heard enough stories about voting irregularities, and if this election is very close, the Autocrat machinery will make sure the Monarchy continues.

    And I’ve had it with Tinkle-down economics. The Autocrats are trying to scare the former middle class into voting themselves into poverty like they’ve been doing for years and it’s time to stop it.

    We are citizens of a Democracy, not subjects of an empire.

    And while we frequently IMPOSE democracy on the world, now is our chance to practice it here.

  2. CHERYL FROM FLORIDA on October 30th, 2008 3:51 am

    Well, when you are dealing with republicans, massive voter fraud is a real possibility.
    They will stop at nothing including murder
    Everyone knows it but will not talk about it.
    With Obama we have a real chance of getting our country back on track, which gives light at the end of the tunnel.
    I cannot wait until Nov4, I am sure that Obama will win!
    OBAMA/BIDEN 08:)

  3. CHILDREN OF ISRAEL on October 30th, 2008 7:12 am

    As a Jew, I was terrified by a comment made by Sarah Palin at a rally in which “Joe the Plumber” was a featured guest.

    “With his shaved head, jeans, and steel toed boots, he’s OUR kind of guy right?” said Palin to a resounding cheer from
    the overwhelmingly WASP crowd. (At which point I cringed for her husband, Todd who is nothing like Joe the Plumber).

    In what country are shaved heads, certain brands of jeans and especially steel toed boots not associated with radical
    Neo-Nazi skinheads? And how do you suppose those Neo-Nazi skinheads feel about Jews, African-Americans, Catholics, and anyone else who does not fit the narrow description of a
    “real” American according to the right wing conservatives?

    Wake up Children of Israel!
    McCain/Palin is a vote for those who despise us. Remember this: they protect Israel for Christianity, NOT Judaism.

  4. Bob in CO on October 30th, 2008 10:39 am

    The Democrats have radical out of touch ideas and thats why the Muslim Extremist, Barack Hussein Obama is going to lose this election.

    The Liberal MSM is putting on a good show. But Barack Hussein Obama is NOT ahead. The polls are crafted to measure the way the MSM wants them to.

    McCain has already won this. Look at the list of people that the Muslim Extremist Barack Hussein Obama is associated with:Rezko, Ayers, Wright, Farrakhan, and now Khalidi. I’m sure that’s just the beginning of the list. He wants to destroy Israel, and impose Socialist doctrine on our country.

    No candidate has ever won on a promise to RAISE TAXES on the American people, and Americans can see through his radical plan to take from the hard workers and give to the lazy. The American People still remember the thousands of people who DIED on 9/11/01. The American people will not elect someone who fraternizes with and supports terrorists.

    I believe that on Friday, tomorrow, the McCain campaign will reveal an item that will close the deal with the American people and we will see a red state sweep on Election Night.

    The godless Liberal radicals will be shocked and crushed. Come Nov. 5 we will be assured of 8 more years of Republican, American leadership under a pair of real patriots, President John McCain and VP Sarah Palin.

    Don’t believe the polls. John McCain has already sealed the deal.

  5. allinthegame on October 30th, 2008 11:00 am

    Manav,
    You are a disgrace to democracy. What other reason would there be to try to influence the United States of America’s Presidential Race, then to try to keep McCain-Palin supporters from going to the poles. Do you even understand the word democracy? Even If ANYTHING YOU SAID WERE TRUE, you sir, have no business in trying to interfere with my right to go to the polls and cast my vote for your alleged loser. John McCain. I will certainly go to the polls, but you sir, will be remembered for having tried to hijack democracy by reporting something for your personal gain that could influence the vote. Now, I will have my say:
    A VOTE FOR BARACH OBAMA IS LIKE A VOTE FOR GEORGE BUSH. OBAMA IS THE NEW BUSH. HE IS THE MONEYED CANDIDATE BACKED BY HUGE SELF INTERESTS. THE FACTS ARE PLAIN AND YOU HAVE BEEN REPORTING THE FACTS ABOUT HIS HISTORIC ELECTION COFFERS. THAT MONEY, EXCUSE ME, DID NOT COME FROM AFRICAN AMERICANS. THIS CANDIDATE HAS BEEN BOUGHT AND PAID FOR BY BIG INTERESTS, DESPITE HIS ABOMINABLE LIES. WHAT A SHAME THAT AN AFRICAN AMERICAN HAS BEEN USED BY EVIL ENTITIES FOR THEIR OWN PURPOSES.

  6. allinthegame on October 30th, 2008 11:06 am

    A vote for Obama is just like a vote for George Bush. They are very similar candidates. They both are cocky, well-moneyed and are inclined to want to take personal liberties away. Bush waged war on other countries. Obama has waged war on America’s basic premises. Obama is the new George Bush.

  7. allinthegame on October 30th, 2008 11:07 am

    Manav,
    What other reason would there be to try to influence the United States of America’s Presidential Race, then to try to keep McCain-Palin supporters from going to the poles. Do you even understand the word democracy? Even If ANYTHING YOU SAID WERE TRUE, you sir, have no business in trying to interfere with my right to go to the polls and cast my vote for your alleged loser. John McCain. I will certainly go to the polls, but you sir, will be remembered for having tried to hijack democracy by reporting something for your personal gain that could influence the vote. Now, I will have my say:
    A VOTE FOR BARACH OBAMA IS LIKE A VOTE FOR GEORGE BUSH. OBAMA IS THE NEW BUSH. HE IS THE MONEYED CANDIDATE BACKED BY HUGE SELF INTERESTS. THE FACTS ARE PLAIN AND YOU HAVE BEEN REPORTING THE FACTS ABOUT HIS HISTORIC ELECTION COFFERS. THAT MONEY, EXCUSE ME, DID NOT COME FROM AFRICAN AMERICANS. THIS CANDIDATE HAS BEEN BOUGHT AND PAID FOR BY BIG INTERESTS, DESPITE HIS ABOMINABLE LIES. WHAT A SHAME THAT AN AFRICAN AMERICAN HAS BEEN USED BY EVIL ENTITIES FOR THEIR OWN PURPOSES.

  8. Bob on October 30th, 2008 7:53 pm

    Wow, Bill, you get some, …ummm,… interesting comments.

  9. dgun on October 30th, 2008 8:03 pm

    The only way to be a true American, of course, instead of a an American hating bastard, is to vote for Obama. The choice she is a clear one:

    If you love America, vote for Obama.

    If you hate America, vote for McCain so we can continue the misery of the last eight years

    I would ask that the individuals above who stated that they hate America, by saying that they’re not voting for Obama, would reconsider their position and remember how great America is. Why not be a little patriotic? Why not love the country that has given you so much?

    But you can’t hold a whole fraternity responsible for the behavior of a few sick, perverted individuals.

    If you do shouldn’t we blame the whole fraternity system?

    And if the whole fraternity system is guilty then isn’t this an indictment
    of our educational institutions in general?

    (Deltas cheering)

    I put it to you, Greg. Isn’t this an indictment
    of our entire American society?

    Well you can do what you want to me…

    but I for one will not just sit here and listen to you badmouth
    the United States of America!

    Gentlemen!

  10. William K. Wolfrum Chronicles » Blog Archive » Fox News Channel Election Day Live Blog on November 4th, 2008 5:18 am

    [...] (Me: Polls aren’t always wrong. They’e usually right.) More … [...]

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